The Glass is Half-Full?

We knew it was coming. The Monday morning quarterbacking started early Wednesday morning after the election. Today, I’ve decided to take a few snaps from center, so I plead guilty to what is written below.

By most accounts, the Republicans, the GOP, and the Conservatives – whatever they are calling themselves got their butts kicked by the Democrats, the Liberals, and the Progressives, who can call themselves winners in 2008.

Calm down my friends. As Hannity says, “Let not your heart be troubled.” Of course, Hannity has a job for the next few years bashing the liberals, so it’s all good for him – he was not voted out of office.

Here in Montana, the final nail in the coffin happened yesterday when Secretary of State Brad Johnson was defeated by Linda McCulloch by about 4400 votes. Speaking of nails in coffins, I believe the first nail was hammered when Bob Kelleher ran as a Republican and the party faithful did not disown him very much until he won the primary, which was too late. They thought he would never win the primary. His opponent, Max Baucus, had 11 million dollars to spend on his friends. PARTY!

I believe the second nail was the voter challenges that backfired when the GOP only challenged voters in Democratic-leaning counties. The Democrats flipped the table on this and paraded military members and college students out in front of the media and cried voter suppression. It worked.

Still another misfire that I believed hurt the GOP cause was not having McCain or Palin swing through Montana for one brief stop for one brief hour or so to rally the faithful and help the candidates down the ballot. Sure McCain won Montana, but I believe a short stop could have helped other GOP candidates. Heck, even Todd, the first dude, might have helped.

One of my friends called me late yesterday and said, “Every freaking state-wide seat in Montana was won by the Democrats, except Rehberg’s. What the heck is up with that?”

My response was, “Calm down. Go hunting. Take a walk. Watch some TV and see what’s on besides Hannity and Colmes and O’Reilly. We need you ready for 2010.” People like my friend need a little re-programming.

I also read some remarks from a disgruntled right-winger who had commented on a blog or in the comment section of a newspaper saying something like everyone working for the National and State GOP should submit their resignations by the end of the week. I think that was the same one that listed the results, which showed something like the GOP was zero for five in state government races, one for three on the Public Service Commission races and 50/50 (maybe) in the Montana House. Then there’s losing the White House, losing seats in the U.S. Senate and several in the U.S. House. It’s enough for some folks to start drinking from their half-full glass.

But, for the folks who want their glasses to be half-full, here’s the good news: Montana’s U.S. House seat is still in GOP hands, and the GOP gained three seats in the state senate.

These results are not exactly a résumé builder.

Unfortunately, there’s no mercy rule in politics. You can’t tap out. In 2006 and more recently in 2008, the Democrats were better at grinding their opponents into the ground, then kicking them again and again. That’s not to say that the Republicans did not offer a fine slate of candidates – they did. I voted for most of them, did some consulting for a couple, and wrote letters to the editor for some others.

Fortunately, these things have a way of working out. In a few years the tide will turn. History proves that. So my conservative friends, lick your wounds, find out what worked and make it better. Find out what did not work and find a better way. Bring in new people with new ideas and get rid of the dead weight. Open the tent flaps a little more, because there’s another major election in two years.

Defeated

On November 4, voters in Cascade County overwhelmingly defeated a bond proposal to keep the land near the Malmstrom AFB runway free from development. The proposal failed miserably 63%-37%.

I had endorsed the proposal. The Great Falls Tribune did a story today with the headline, “What's next for property near runway?” Several supposedly in-the-know local officials chimed in with their opinions.

In my humble opinion, if this bond issue had passed then it would have sent a signal to the leaders of the Air Force, the Department of Defense and the Obama Administration that Cascade County Montana residents were open for more military missions.

Since it did not pass, it probably sent the opposite message to those in position to send a new flying mission to Malmstrom. That’s a chance the backers of Malmstrom had to take. The defeat of the bond issue also sent a negative message to any private company that may be looking at Malmstrom’s runway for use in the future.

To be quite honest, Malmstrom’s future looks very dim today. In 2007, the Air Force decided to take one-quarter of the missile mission. Along with that came the loss of several hundred personnel assigned to the base and cuts to the number of new homes being built for base personnel, which harmed local businesses.

It is unclear how the Obama Administration will handle our land-based nuclear missions since he has only started to get the highly classified briefings about the happenings in the world. While running for President, Obama said, "It's time to send a clear message to the world: America seeks a world with no nuclear weapons.” He added, “As long as nuclear weapons exist, we'll retain a strong deterrent. But we'll make the goal of eliminating all nuclear weapons a central element in our nuclear policy."

The strong deterrent part should (hopefully) include Malmstrom AFB.

There are several ways of looking at what the future of Malmstrom holds:

The first thing is that Malmstrom personnel are already trained to dismantle a missile mission. Since 50 missiles were just removed, it just might be easier to take more. The equipment and the training are in place to do it again.

The second thing is politics. Yes, it matters in everything. President-elect Obama is a Democrat and so are Montana’s two U.S. Senators. So are North Dakota’s senators, but not Wyoming’s. They might sway his opinion and urge him, if he’s bound and determined to disarm land-based missiles, to remove them from a place like Wyoming. Wyoming is the home of the current Vice President. He will soon be gone as will his clout. The states that have land-based nuclear missiles all went for McCain, with Wyoming being McCain’s strongest supporter of the three. Cascade County Montana supported Obama, while the counties that are the home of Minot AFB and F.E. Warren AFB supported McCain.

The third reason is it would be easy to close Malmstrom. Malmstrom really has only one other mission (RED HORSE), so some may be think why not just close it and move the RED HORSE mission somewhere else. I’m sure there are other pro and con reasons.

Hopefully one or more of Montana’s three elected officials (Baucus, Tester or Congressman Denny Rehberg) will get a seat on a defense or military committee in the next session of Congress to drive some a new mission to Malmstrom that would help expand its worth in the “defense of our nation” world.

Sadly though, with the overwhelming defeat of the bond issue, the road ahead for Malmstrom may be a bumpy one.

Jockeying

With the change in Presidential Administrations, especially when we switch parties, there are several folks who will be looking for new jobs. On the other side of the aisle, there are thousands of people wanting to fill these positions in the Obama Administration.

Democrats will fill thousands of positions through Presidential appointments. There’s really nothing to worry about, like the Government shutting down or anything that wild, the Federal government will continue to run because most of the work is done by career civil servants.

Here in Montana, people will see changes, too. There will be a new U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana, a new U.S. Marshal for the District of Montana, a new State Director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Development, and new director for the Farm Services Agency (FSA) and the FSA five-member board will see a changeover.

It’s the same all over the United States, but since Montana has only one Congressional District called “At-Large” there are less of these appointments.

President-elect Obama will mostly rely on Montana’s senior Senator, Max Baucus, to give him some recommendations for these posts. Of course, Baucus may ask the junior Senator and fellow Democrat, Jon Tester, for some input. When they recommend people, they will put on a united front. These folks must be confirmed in the U.S. Senate. But make no mistake about it, President-elect Obama will count on Max Baucus to recommend the right people for him to nominate for these Presidential appointments.

Nobody would be gullible enough to think that the people placed in these positions are not “friends.” They are. That’s just the way it works.

I would imagine the Baucus offices are already making the plans and have people in mind for these positions and may already have résumés coming in. It’s been eight years since Baucus has gotten to give a real recommendation to the President (that was taken seriously). So Baucus has had time to plan.

Down the road, they may even get to recommend a new Federal Judge if any of the current ones in Montana decides to call it quits.

Controlling the White House and the U.S. Senate does have its perks.

It’s important that the people recommended have decent records because the process is lengthy and many times skeletons can be found during this process or by the media (or bloggers) if they care to look into their pasts.

For me, I’m looking for a Cabinet position, maybe the Secretary of Veterans Affairs. After seeing a few retired four-star generals hanging out with Obama, I don’t think I have a chance for that job. I’m also probably out of the running for Secretary of Defense or for a job as a Secretary of one of the branches of the military. To compound things, I have not been a major donor to any Democratic campaigns or to the Democratic Party.

There have been rumors that Governor Brian Schweitzer may be in line for one of the coveted Obama cabinet positions, like Secretary of Energy or Interior. This appointment would present several issues for him and both the Democrat and Republican Parties in Montana namely Lt. Governor John Bohlinger moving up to Governor or something even wilder happening. We’ll keep our Inbox open for more rumors, like Jon Tester being pegged for Secretary of Agriculture.

I’m sure some of my readers will have other recommendations for the Governor and Senator, so please keep it clean. You can e-mail me any rumors you are hearing about these positions at: Western_WordatYahoo.com

Sour Grapes

When thinking of things to write about today, the last thing I wanted to write about was a losing campaign.

Anyone who has been reading my commentaries very long, know how I detest stories that are written or reported with unnamed sources. Back in 2006, some in the Montana media used these types of sources for their stories to help elect Jon Tester. It’s cheap and lazy journalism.

The last couple of days, Fox News has been reporting about Sarah Palin’s relationship with the McCain staffers. Supposedly, they had a strained relationship. Fox News’ Carl Cameron, in his reporting has not “named names” and for this he gets to be in my dog house today. I expect better from reporters like Cameron, who has allowed the anger of the losing McCain staffers to creep into his reporting. Quite possibly, Cameron has been on the campaign trail just a little too long.

The McCain campaign staffers who are attacking Palin anonymously are losers in more than one way. Besides running what most are calling a terrible campaign, the junk they are throwing out after the loss is nothing but sour grapes. It’s juvenile. It doesn’t do anybody any good.

A big question someone should ask is, “Where is John McCain on this issue?” One would expect McCain to step up like the honorable man he has been and call for these crybabies to stop it. We’re waiting.

If there were problems with Sarah Palin, the only people to blame were the insiders who vetted her and John McCain. As for Sarah Palin, she has remained classy in her response to these stories. Classy is not something we can call Carl Cameron from Fox News and the McCain staffers who are feeding him this garbage.

The Morning After

At about 2:00 a.m., I decided to call it a night and head to bed. I’m not one for the election night parties, as I’d rather sit in front of my computer and check the returns from around the state and country.

As normal, I was totally disappointed with the way the results came in from across Montana. It seems so slow compared to states like Wyoming, North and South Dakota. It seems the major media organizations in those states post the results sooner than Montana. Again, as normal, those people writing about and doing the on-air reporting of the results lack the experience to actually understand what they are saying.

Some of the questions in the commentary I wrote yesterday called “Pondering” were answered:

I mentioned that in the U.S. Senate race, some people may not vote for either candidate and leave that race blank. Max Baucus, as expected, easily won, but only around 459,200 people voted in that race, which was less people voting for President, Governor, and U.S. House. These numbers were checked around 9:00 a.m.

The State Land Board is securely in the Democrats’ hands.

I “pondered” about how far the MSU-B poll would be off. The MSU-B poll had Schweitzer winning 60.2% to Brown’s 27.3%. The results this morning show Schweitzer winning 65%-33%. In the U.S. House, MSU-B had Rehberg winning 59.2% to 25.3%. He is winning 65%-32%. In the Presidential race, MSU-B had Obama winning here in Montana 44.4% to 40.2%. Currently, McCain leads 50%-47%.

In regards to the National Polls, it looks like Rasmussen was the most accurate. They projected Obama would win the popular vote 52%-46%. Currently, he is winning by that exact amount.

Barack Obama is the President-elect. We have, once again, peacefully elected a new President. We should all be proud of that fact. While I did not vote for him, he will be my President. He and his administration will be in my prayers. I admired McCain’s concession speech, and I smiled when the cameras panned Obama’s victory party in Chicago and the excitement. This is another great moment in our country’s history.

A big thanks goes to all the people who voted. Thanks goes to those who ran for office. Thanks goes to the people who worked behind the scenes for the candidate of their choice. This is the greatest country on the face on the earth!

There are still several races across the state and country that I’m watching. In some races, it may be days or weeks before we find out who won. Of course, the Monday morning quarterbacking starts today as well as the soul searching. I’ll be watching that, too.

Congratulations...

...to President-Elect Barack Obama. You are in my prayers. -Jack

Election Day Irregularities

An election would not be an election without some problems. Click HERE to read more.

Pondering...

While sipping from one of my last remaining bottles of Blue Moon Pumpkin Ale this afternoon, I decided to ponder what I’d be looking for when the election results come out in Montana later this evening. Of course, I wonder about the National election and then drift into what the future holds.

First off, I hope the political folks who are calling my home number urging “Karen” to get out to vote actually find “Karen.” Nobody named “Karen” lives here. That has not stopped them from calling me four or five times in the last 24 hours.

Statewide:

Will the visit of Barack Obama and the deployment of several paid staffers to the state win Montana for him, or will the Montana GOP folks who urged McCain to use his resources some place else, look silly on Wednesday?

Just how far off was that MSU-B poll?

Which state-wide candidate running in a contested race will get the most votes? Baucus? Rehberg? I imagine some folks, like me, decided to leave some races blank. Imagine if you are Max Baucus and when the votes are counted you find 25,000 people did not vote for you or your opponent?

Since Max Baucus had about a gazillion dollars, how much did he help the local legislative contests?

Will the Democrats control the state land board in 2009?

Will the Republicans maintain control of the State House in 2009?

Can the Democrats maintain control of the State Senate in 2009?

What will happen in the Montana legislature, if the Republicans control the House and Senate and Governor Schweitzer is re-elected?

Nationally:

Will the Senate Democrats have a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the U.S. Senate?

What will the Senate Democrats do to Joe Lieberman?

Depending on who wins, which candidate will be the front-runner for the White House in 2012? The race starts November 5.

Things to ponder down the road:

Will Brian Schweitzer run for U.S. Senate in 2012 and Jon Tester run for Governor?

Will this finally be Max Baucus’ last term?

Will Denny Rehberg run for Senate or Governor or House in 2012?

Will Dennis McDonald run for U.S. House in 2010?

So many questions. Some of them will be answered in a few hours. It will be fun!

No calls today - Please!

Has anyone checked Governor Brian Schweitzer’s phone to see if he’s making any calls to election officials today?

We’d like to see the election of 2008 be fair with no tampering from the Governor.

Check HERE and HERE for more details.

Smelly!

Seems one Montana voter decided that Barack Obama’s message was a load of crap. He parked his trailer loaded with manure across the street from the local Democratic campaign office in Whitehall, Montana.

He plans to keep it there through Election Day. You can read the story HERE.

Obama's Neighborhood

When politicians show up to vote at their polling place on election day, you can bet it’s scripted down to the minute to get the most coverage from the media.

It must have sent shock waves through the Obama campaign when Barack and Michelle’s friends, 1960s radical Bill Ayers and Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, showed up to vote around the same time.

Interesting neighborhood. There’s no word if Reverend Jeremiah Wright votes there.

Just Vote

This is the day! Please vote today if you have not already.

A big thank you goes to ALL the candidates who placed their name on the ballots.

You help make this country great! Good luck!

Before you vote...

…here are a few ads to review:

Enjoy!







And, the best one to remember:

Poll Watchers

I’m sure there would be no lack of election judges and other poll watchers at this proposed polling site.

It would probably cut down on absentee ballot requests, too.

Voting Concerns

A recent poll by Gallup tells us that most Americans do not think that votes across the country will be accurately cast and counted.

Gallup reported, “As Americans cast their ballots in this year's historic presidential election, just 18% are very confident that votes across the country will be accurately cast and counted, down sharply from 29% who said so just prior to the 2004 election.”

Gallup also reported, “…nearly half of Americans (44%) say they expect votes cast by people who are ineligible to be a "major problem" in this year's election.”

Since Montana’s Governor, Brian Schweitzer (D), bragged about turning some dials to help his friend, Jon Tester, win the 2006, many folks I have spoken with in this state are worried about a fair election.

We might have quieted these ill feelings some if Montana Attorney General Mike McGrath (D) would have conducted an investigation into the matter. He refused to investigate his friend. Personally, I would have liked to have seen McGrath check into the Governor’s cell phone and office calls made on Election Day to see if he contacted more officials about counting the votes than he actually bragged about.

Of course, the latest issue with ACORN (with ties to Obama) registering Mickey Mouse in Florida and Monica Ray 10 times in Missouri cast doubt in voters’ minds. Coupled with the Florida issue in 2000, people have a right to be concerned.

It might be best to take Governor Schweitzer’s cell phone for the day. He has more at stake in this race than he did in 2006.

The Polls

Hopefully sometime late Tuesday night, we’ll find out which polls for the Presidential election got it right. For the hundreds of pollsters around the country, this is more important than who wins.

My family has been polled about 12 times in the last few weeks. I always take the time to participate, except for the time the pollster called during the Vice Presidential debate. I kind of abruptly told her, “Don’t you know there’s a VP debate going on RIGHT NOW-call me back later!” She called back after it was over.

For a local race, the pollster asked me about a candidate running as a Democrat for state senate. The funny part was that this candidate had lost in the primary. I played along; besides I was voting for the Republican any way.

I subscribe to several polls. When reading their e-mails, I like to see the party breakdown of the polling, if they disclose it. One poll I subscribe to has consistently sampled about 5% more Democrats than Republicans. Their polls have shown Obama with a five point lead lately. Last night, USA Today/Gallup 2008 pre-election poll predicted that Barack Obama would be elected the 44th president of the United States. That seems a little premature for me since it was released two days before Election Day.

The poll that supposedly got it closer last Presidential Election than any others was the IDP/TIPP poll. Yesterday, that poll showed Obama up by 2.1 percent, with 8.7 percent undecided. It seems McCain is inching closer according to their polling.

Each of the candidates has their own internal polling going on in the different states. Several years ago while volunteering for a candidate, we went out to eat dinner late Monday night before Election Day on Tuesday. Around 10:00 p.m. he received a call from his political party’s pollster telling him they had crunched all the numbers and by all accounts he would win the election by around three points. The next night, he won the election by 3.3.%. Of course, there could have been some issue or event that kept voters from getting to the polls, like a major blizzard or a something else, but if nothing major happened on Election Day, he was going to win, and he did. The political party’s internal polling is probably better than what the polls we read about in the newspapers and on the internet tell us.

So, sometime tonight John McCain and Barack Obama will get that call. They will know if they are going to win this election (if nothing major happens). On Tuesday when they go and cast their votes, one will be putting on smile because he has to; the other one will be smiling because he knows he’s a winner.

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